Even after his Strade Bianche victory, it could be loopy for Tadej Pogačar to experience Paris-Roubaix this yr.
The rumours that the Slovenian may experience Roubaix are nonetheless going round, particularly after his win on the gravel on Saturday, however I feel it’s a loopy concept at this level in his profession. When he and the staff had been speaking about it I simply thought “what are they speaking about right here?” The threat is so excessive in Roubaix, and for a rider who’s at his prime to win one other Tour de France and show that final yr wasn’t a fluke due to Jonas Vingegaard’s crash, it’s not a good suggestion to experience Roubaix.
This yr, he has to substantiate that his Tour win in 2024 was a real experience from him, not simply because his rival was injured. and to do this he has to get every thing proper and never go to those loopy races. He’s additionally meant to do Gent-Wevelgem, which in my expertise is simply loopy with the wind and the dangers you need to take to struggle and be within the entrance finish of the race, which Pogačar all the time needs to do.
His program of one-day races and never a lot stage racing is sweet, as a result of he’s proven that he doesn’t have to do a number of week-long races to get in form for the Grand Tours, however Roubaix can be a step too far. It’s not a race for someone who is supposed to be specializing in the Tour de France.
Even although Strade confirmed his power, it additionally proved simply how dangerous these races will be, and the error he made was an newbie mistake. He shouldn’t attempt to go so exhausting on a descent, particularly in opposition to a man like Tom Pidcock. It’s like peeing into the wind. In the gravel sections too, should you’re Pogačar you don’t push it to the restrict with Pidcock in your wheel, it’s on the uphills the place he ought to have been making an attempt to do the injury.
When I noticed the crash, I believed perhaps there was a little bit of oil or diesel on the highway, since you noticed Pidcock stored slightly bit extra to the left, and confirmed off his bike dealing with abilities by maintaining cool when somebody goes down in entrance of you, and that’s the place the actual benefit is. But there was no oil in any respect on the highway – it was only a huge mistake by Pogačar.
Pidcock might have taken benefit at this level, however I feel it was the suitable choice to ultimately look forward to Pogačar. For the primary kilometre or so he stored on shifting, but it surely was 40km from the end, so I think about that when the director within the automobile noticed that Pogačar was again driving and he hadn’t achieved any main injury, then they’d have determined that the most effective choice was to knock it off and let him come again.
Pidcock mentioned that ready was a matter of respect, but it surely was a tactical one too. If he’d stored driving, he may need held Pogačar off for an additional 10km if he went full fuel, however he’d then have paid an even bigger worth for that in a while and nonetheless misplaced out to Pogačar. Once it was clear there was no main downside from the crash, Pogačar was all the time going to catch him, so there was no level making an attempt to push on.
When a rider wins solo from a good distance out, and lined in blood, does that imply Strade is getting too troublesome, or too harmful? It’s actually nothing new with the race organisers. Every organiser needs to make their race harder now, with essentially the most gravel sectors, or essentially the most cobbled climbs, however there’s a restrict. I feel it’s one thing the UCI has to determine on, for the welfare of riders – not simply when it comes to crashes, however doping too, as a result of riders are being pushed to their restrict, and naturally groups and riders making each race so exhausting doesn’t assist the state of affairs both.
It needs to be the UCI that decides, as a result of if groups have a difficulty or they don’t need to begin, the massive names may have the ability to say one thing, however the small groups who could be struggling to complete these races don’t actually have a voice. They’re afraid to say one thing as a result of the organisers may say “okay, subsequent yr, you don’t get a wildcard invitation”, and so points aren’t raised.
What the Strade Bianche organisers are positively getting proper although is the ladies’s race. It was a extremely, actually thrilling race and an exciting last, with Demi Vollering taking the win. I feel that the way in which they’ve the races too, with the ladies’s race being earlier than the boys’s race, and we’ve seen how the ladies’s race has grown huge time in the previous couple of years. They had the staff displays all collectively as nicely, which I feel is a superb idea, and must be achieved that means.
Strade Bianche is unquestionably turning into one of many Monuments for women and men, and it will likely be fairly stable on that Monument listing now.
Pogačar’s subsequent problem
Winning Strade for a 3rd time was a fantastic victory for Pogačar, however he has a giant problem arising at Milan-San Remo. Looking on the final couple of years, it’s going to be very troublesome for him to make a distinction within the last. If he can do one thing, the one place to do it will likely be the Poggio. If you go away on the Cipressa with two or three guys, there’s all the time nonetheless a peloton of 30 to 40 guys not less than who will probably be chasing you between the Cipressa and the Poggio, so the avoid there may be simply not doable, you need to strive one thing earlier.
What can Pogačar and UAE do although? They’ve tried going up the Poggio full fuel and making an attempt to place everybody in problem, however they don’t appear to have the ability to make it exhausting sufficient, as a result of so many extra riders are in a position to recover from this form of climb now, the sprinters in addition to riders like Ganna, Van der Poel and Van Aert.
We’ve seen UAE push on at 100% and actually set an infernal tempo, but it surely’s simply not doable to go any quicker. So how do you eliminate the quick riders? Unless you get a extremely dangerous day the place the climate situations are horrible and everybody arrives on the Poggio fatigued and moist and chilly, then it’s actually not a chance to eliminate sufficient individuals.
After San Remo, Pogačar goes to be up in opposition to some robust rivals. Pidcock, specifically, goes to be actually fascinating, as a result of he’s in nice form and his morale goes to be sky-high, so I feel we are going to see him decide up much more within the Classics. And then after all there’s all the standard Classics guys. Van Aert, Van der Poel, they’ll be all making an attempt to beat Pogačar within the huge races like Flanders and Roubaix, and there are a great deal of different sturdy riders within the combine too.
It’s very completely different from what a rider like Vingegaard is doing, however I feel Pogačar’s present race plan of primarily Classics goes to work. Some GC riders do flip up and race some Classics to get a really feel for them – a number of the Giro contenders had been at Strade forward of the gravel stage in May – however with Vingegaard, there’s no level except he thought he might win, why take the danger? He’s proven he can take care of gravel within the Tour, and if he thought he might win considered one of these Classics I’m positive he’d have a go, however proper now it’s not well worth the threat. Especially after final yr, he’ll need to put together for the Tour with as few dangers as doable.
For Pogačar, I don’t suppose there’s any downside that he’s not racing a stage race till the Dauphiné, he’s nonetheless on a superb monitor for the Tour in July. He’ll do particular coaching and altitude camps and these one-day races will maintain him race match, and so long as he avoids harm – by not taking dangers in races like Roubaix – then it’s only a matter of topping his kind up for the Tour de France.