When Mathieu van der Poel introduced his spring race program earlier this yr, the truth that Amstel Gold Race was undoubtedly on his schedule, that Flèche Wallonne was undoubtedly off it and that Liège-Bastogne-Liège was ‘undoubtedly perhaps’ didn’t really feel irrelevant. But nearly.
Truth be instructed, it was onerous to look past the Alpecin-Deceuninck chief’s 2023 defence of two Monument titles at Milan-Sanremo and Paris-Roubaix, in addition to his new alternative to hitch the report holders in Flanders with a 3rd win in 5 years. And there’s little doubt that even when Paris-Roubaix, reasonably than Liège, concluded the 2024 Classics season, reminiscences of what Van der Poel has now managed to realize within the final 10 days will endure lengthy in biking’s collective reminiscence.
Quite other than Van der Poel’s transferring into the higher echelons of the perfect all-time Classics riders because of his Flanders-Roubaix double, Alpecin-Deceuninck’s newly-established report as the primary crew ever to take all three of those Monuments in the identical spring make them the squad to beat for subsequent Spring’s Classics as properly.
But such astounding success additionally leaves us with an equally attention-grabbing query – short-term, the place does Van der Poel go from right here?
At this cut-off date, Van der Poel’s presence (or not) within the three Ardennes Classics, beginning Sunday on the Amstel Gold Race, has one thing of the texture of encores at an excellent rock live performance. The most important tracklist of Van der Poel’s one-day racing has been carried out by now, but even because the applause dies down, expectations and hopes of one thing particular nonetheless to come back in the following couple of minutes stay terribly excessive. Essentially, no person within the viewers needs to rise up and go away simply but.
The excellent news is that no matter occurs after Van der Poel pedals again on stage on Sunday in Maastricht’s Grote Markt, he is heading into far much less acquainted floor than after we noticed him confidently certain away 60 kilometres from the end in Paris-Roubaix. (The predictability of the result after he did so final Sunday, let it’s stated, was all to Van der Poel’s credit score, given how notoriously treacherous the pathway to victory within the Queen of the Classics will be.)
This is true even when the Amstel Gold Race has featured in Van der Poel’s earlier race repertoire. After all, his victory in 2019 was the place he made his breakthrough main Classics triumph, courtesy of a blistering last-minute sprint previous a late breakaway and he obtained fourth, too, in 2022.
But in comparison with Roubaix or the Flemish Classics, his whole of simply two participations to this point in Amstel means it stays one thing of an outlier. And ought to Van der Poel enterprise any additional south than the hills of Limberg on Sunday night, in the direction of Liège and a race the place he is solely participated as soon as, in 2020, he’ll be heading into extra unchartered waters.
Nor can what he’s going through be underestimated. It’s not simply that his one efficiency in Liège garnered a sixth-place end, the sort of outcome that is adequate to make sure he can’t be dominated out, however on no account good or latest sufficient to be a assure he can repeat it. That argument carries much more weight on condition that 2020 was the pandemic yr, when nearly all the outcomes of that haphazard season had a barely bizarre tinge to them.
But fairly other than the a lot hillier terrain he’ll face compared to his typical stomping grounds within the Ardennes, the presence of one other large of one-day racing, Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates), in Liège’s 2024 begin checklist, immediately pushes the Classic onto an entirely completely different and far more troublesome stage. Certainly, assuming Van der Poel actually does attempt to grow to be the primary rider since Sean Kelly in 1984 to take Roubaix and Liège in the identical season, because of Pogačar’s presence, a serious duel between two prime racers might properly be on the desk.
The solely different rider within the present peloton to carry a candle to Van der Poel’s Monument whole – 5 to the Dutchman’s six – Pogačar can also be one of many few riders to interrupt Van der Poel’s cobbled Classics domination final yr in Flanders. Furthermore, the Slovenian’s chequered historical past with Liège-Bastogne-Liège following final April’s crash-out will seemingly solely additional heighten the UAE Team Emirates’ motivation for a repeat of his 2021 victory on the Boulevard de Sauvenière.
There’s additionally the query of how Van der Poel and Pogačar’s remarkably comparable methods for successful Monuments might play off in opposition to one another on Liège’s 11 labeled climbs and 4,100 metres of vertical climbing, culminating within the agonisingly steep Côte de la Roche-aux-Faucons. Long-distance strikes are an inhouse speciality for each riders, this yr alone be it Pogačar at Strade Bianche, attacking 81 kilometres from the end line in Siena, or Van der Poel doing his double at Flanders and Roubaix just a few weeks later.
The better of the three?
In some senses it’s regrettable that Pogačar will likely be absent from Amstel Gold, the place he’s defending champion, so the Ardennes couldn’t grow to be a two-round duel with Van der Poel. That vacuum might have crammed, in fact, by Remco Evenepoel. The Belgian’s presence might have ushered in a repeat of the occasions of 2022 and 2023, too, the place Evenepoel efficiently managed to ‘save’ Soudal-QuickStep’s uneven Classics season on the bell, with back-to-back resounding last-minute victories in Liège.
But hopes of Evenepoel’s presence have pale fully now after his horrible crash in Itzulia Basque Country, that means in Amstel no less than, Van der Poel would be the race’s central reference level.
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The course for Holland’s solely WorldTour Classic is equivalent to 2023, that means probably the most emblematic climb, the Cauberg, is barely tackled twice reasonably than the thrice in earlier years. And the principle options of its rugged finale, beginning with a second ascent of the Cauberg however the place the Geulhemmerberg and Bemelerberg climbs play an much more essential function, will as soon as once more see an nearly definitive situation emerge for the finale.
As for the probability of Van der Poel being one of many first riders to take the well-known last-kilometre left-hand flip off the Sibberweg and onto the ending Rijksweg highway, he received’t simply have the wind in his sails because of his 2024 report to this point, nor but as a result of he will likely be racing on residence soil. Of the three Ardennes races, Amstel is by far probably the most comparable by way of terrain to Flanders, too, and it’s usually been utilized by cobbled Classics specialists to tug down a curtain on their one-day marketing campaign.
The million-dollar query, although, in relation to Amstel is whether or not Van der Poel’s climbing capability is in any means restricted by what appears to be his even better capability than ever this season to drive residence his benefit on the flat. More lightly-built rivals than Van der Poel may – simply – have the ability to flip the tables on him extra successfully in Amstel’s a lot hillier course, notably if his crew assist shouldn’t be as efficient as final week in Paris-Roubaix.
Fresh from his victory at Brabantse Pijl, Benoit Cosnefroy (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) has already laid down the gauntlet concerning Van der Poel on Sunday. But in a a lot deeper subject than the warm-up act for the Ardennes Classics the place Cosnefroy lastly turned three podium finishes right into a victory, the presence of one other versatile racer like Tom Pidcock (Ineos Grenadiers) or fearless attacker like Matej Mohorič (Bahrain Victorious) will seemingly put Van der Poel’s crew beneath added strain as they attempt to isolate the Dutchman.
‘From now on, the whole lot is a bonus’
“Everything from right here on is a bonus” was what Van der Poel stated after successful the Tour of Flanders. Taking Paris-Roubaix seven days later solely lends his phrase better resonance. But it’s notable too, if logical, that the Dutchman will likely be sticking to his script of avoiding any lesser challenges en path to a potential third Monument victory, and reasonably than take the 2023 Pogačar route of driving in all three Ardennes Classics, he’ll be skipping Flèche Wallonne (in idea no less than) to focus all his efforts and presumably ebbing vitality on Liège.
As for Flèche, a a lot harder ending circuit for Europe’s solely WorldTour Classic to complete on an uphill, that includes 4 ascents of the Mur de Hûy reasonably than the three of earlier years, it might properly be one other main participant make his 2024 Ardennes debut: Primož Roglič (Bora-Hansgrohe).
A former winner of Liège-Bastogne-Liège, Roglič’s standing as lead outsider would arguably be even greater if the Slovenian had not been caught within the horrible mass crash in Itzulia Basque Country.
While fortuitously one of many extra calmly injured compared to his former teammate Jonas Vingegaard, amongst others, photographs on Instagram exhibiting the a number of zones of highway rash he suffered because of two crashes in as many days affirm a query mark nonetheless hangs over his restoration. A prime efficiency in Flèche, however, would affirm Roglič is able to give Pogačar, Van der Poel and the remaining a run for his or her cash in Liège.
Seeing how Roglič measures as much as Van der Poel in terrain that theoretically favours the previous is simply one of many many storylines on this yr’s Ardennes. But for all Van der Poel may very well be extra susceptible than within the cobbled Classics, the place he can but outflank all his rivals subsequent week, besides maybe Pogačar, is by way of strain.
Win or lose, Van der Poel’s and Pogačar’s spring campaigns have already been a triumph. Van der Poel’s two Monuments to this point make for an much more notable spring than that loved by the rider presently ranked primary on this planet.
What’s hanging in any case, is what’s at stake for each riders and the way completely different it’s: Pogačar will certainly wish to make a degree of utilizing the race which marked a turning level in his earlier indomitable 2023 marketing campaign because the springboard for the Giro d’Italia.
But for Van der Poel, Liège (and Amstel earlier than that) really feel merely like a possible situation for a wonderful encore, races the place he has nothing to lose by kicking again a bit of, considering much less and following his instincts – in addition to being a massively prestigious alternative to increase his reign as Classics King of the 2024 season.
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