Tadej Pogačar has admitted that profitable Milan-San Remo has turn into an obsession and his largest rivals are able to benefit from that but once more on Saturday.
The Slovenian is dominating skilled biking, profitable nearly each race he rides in Merckxian model, but the La Classicissima nonetheless eludes him.
Pogačar has gained Il Lombardia 4 occasions, Liège-Bastogne-Liège twice and the Tour of Flanders as soon as. He has additionally gained Strade Bianche 3 times, and now an try on Paris-Roubaix this 12 months is below debate. Eddy Merckx gained Milan-San Remo seven occasions in simply ten rides. While Pogačar has ridden Milan-San Remo 4 occasions, the Italian race has escaped his dominance, leaving him extra decided than ever to win on the Via Roma.
“Milan-San Remo is the one that’s going to ship me to my grave… I’m getting so shut nevertheless it’s to this point, it is unbelievable,” Pogačar admitted to podcaster Peter Attia through the winter, revealing his frustration.
The Milan-San Remo cliche that it’s ‘the simplest Monument to complete however the hardest to win’ stands true, even for Pogačar.
His exuberant model of racing and his overly aggressive nature means he normally dominates races. But his skills can turn into his weaknesses in Milan-San Remo, the place techniques and race craft are sometimes extra necessary than brute pressure and pure expertise.
Pogačar wears the rainbow jersey however the world champion isn’t first to the road, maybe as a result of they’re so carefully marked. Only 5 world champions have ever gained Milan-San Remo, with Beppe Saronni the final, method again in 1983.
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“You can lose Milan-San Remo with each resolution you make and solely the appropriate resolution retains you within the race,” Tom Pidcock advised Cyclingnews throughout Tirreno-Adriatico, completely describing how Milan-San Remo is balanced on a knife fringe of skill, techniques and intuition.
Pogačar and UAE Team Emirates-XRG are nonetheless searching for the proper mixture however are decided to win Milan-San Remo on Saturday as they aim a collection of Spring Classics this 12 months. Their silence about their ambitions this 12 months is an indication of their severe intentions.
They are little question plotting their finest race technique however know that Pogačar has little probability of profitable a dash within the Via Roma. He is quick after an extended race however not quicker than Jasper Philipsen, Mads Pedersen, Michael Matthews and even perhaps Filippo Ganna.
Pogačar wants a tough race on the Turchino climb, alongside the coast after which over the Cipressa with 26km to go, to maybe then make a distinction with a solo assault on the Poggio.
His drawback is that his rivals know his weak point and are prepared to make use of it in opposition to him.
Just like in 2024, if UAE and Pogačar race exhausting, particularly on the Cipressa, it might go away them drained and uncovered on the Poggio, when the decisive assaults so usually come.
“I do wish to give them any recommendations on how one can race, I simply want them good luck…” 2017 winner Michał Kwiatkowski advised Cyclingnews at Tirreno-Adriatico, with a smile, a thick dose of irony and tactical enticement.
“To win large races you adapt your techniques and attempt to benefit from when riders are below strain to win. That’s what I did in 2017. I knew that Peter Sagan was determined to win and so I pressured Sagan to pull us to the end. You all the time have to make use of small however necessary particulars like that.
“We’ll see who’s below strain this 12 months and race accordingly. You’ve received to be sensible to win Milan-San Remo.”
The Cipressa in below 9 minutes
In 2024, sports activities supervisor Matxin Joxean Fernández let slip UAE’s race technique, revealing to GCN that Pogačar and his teammates needed to trip the Cipressa in lower than 9 minutes to cut back the Milan-San Remo peloton to simply 20 riders.
UAE tried to execute that plan however lacked riders on the Cipressa and began the climb out of place. Alessandro Covi did an extended flip after which Isaac del Toro ultimately got here to the entrance for the midsection of the Cipressa. But the younger Mexican cracked earlier than the summit. Pogačar needed to inform Tim Wellens to ease the tempo and so his rivals and a number of other quick finishers had been in a position to sit on the wheels and get a free trip to the Poggio.
Wellens led Pogačar out on the Poggio however Mathieu van der Poel and different riders had been in a position to observe his first assault and one other close to the summit.
The Dutchman then chased down the late assaults within the remaining two-kilometre flat roads to arrange Jasper Philipsen to win the dash. Pogačar got here by means of late to complete a detailed third however he thought-about it a defeat fairly than a podium success.
“As a staff, we modified this race somewhat bit in the previous few years and we’re attempting to make it work,” Pogačar mentioned final 12 months of the staff’s Cipressa tactic.
“When you convey one thing new to a race, it is exhausting to execute it, particularly in this type of race, however yearly we put somewhat bit extra work into it somewhat bit extra per cent falls into place. I believe within the subsequent few years we are able to do even higher.”
The 2024 UAE Team Emirates Milan-San Remo seven-rider line-up included Alessandro Covi, Marc Hirschi, Brandon McNulty, Domen Novak, Diego Ulissi and Tim Wellens. The 2025 squad is anticipated to be considerably stronger, with extra rouleur muscle.
The entry listing line-up for 2025 consists of Pogačar, Wellens, Novak, Nils Politt, Jhonatan Narváez and Vegard Stake Laengen. Cyclingnews understands that Isaac del Toro was not anticipated to trip this 12 months however he was sturdy at Tirreno-Adriatico using for Juan Ayuso and will substitute the USA’s Brandon McNulty, who did not end stage 7 of Paris-Nice. Ayuso is focusing on the Volta a Catalunya that begins on Monday.
Pogačar climbed the Cipressa in 9:35 in 2024 based on La Gazzetta dello Sport. The plan is to once more go below Matxin’s magic variety of 9:00 and smash Gabriele Colombo’s file of 9:19 from 1996 when he attacked, was joined by Max Sciandri, Alexander Gontchenkov and Michele Coppolillo, then received away inside the ultimate kilometre to win alone.
“I would not say a undertaking, however we have already laughed that we’ll do the Cipressa below 9 minutes,” Wellens admitted on the staff’s media day in January.
“Milan-San Remo final 12 months was additionally an instance that not all the things goes based on plan,” he added.
The Cipressa conundrum
Pogačar shortly recovered from his Strade Bianche street rash and skilled at house in Montecarlo whereas most of his rivals raced Paris-Nice or Tirreno-Adriatico and suffered within the chilly and rain. He is anticipated to do a remaining recon trip of the ultimate kilometres of Milan-San Remo earlier than travelling to Milan on Thursday.
Pogačar has little question been fascinated about his Milan-San Remo technique this week and an identical race state of affairs to Colombo’s victory could be nice for him.
A solo assault could be far too audacious even for Pogačar. Still, if a choose group received away, with out a few of the big-name favourites, it could enhance Pogačar’s possibilities of attacking alone on the Poggio after which his possibilities of profitable Milan-San Remo.
The Cipressa begins 21.7km from the end of Milan-San Remo. It is 5.6km lengthy and climbs up the hillside overlooking the Mediterranean and thru the olive timber at a median of 4.1%. There are hairpins and straighter sections, the place wind course can also be very important. A headwind makes assaults far harder.
If UAE set a quick, nine-minute tempo on the Cipressa after which Pogačar assaults close to the summit, would anybody dare go together with him?
Tom Pidcock could possibly be tempted.
“That’s query….” he advised Cyclingnews.
“It all relies upon. If he goes by himself, I’m unsure it is the appropriate tactic to go together with him. But if anybody else goes with Pogačar, then that is totally different.
“Who is aware of what’s going to occur on the day? Things are determined within the warmth of the race. It will depend on the climate – if it is heat or chilly, moist or dry.”
If Pogačar surges away on the Cipressa, certainly Mads Pedersen, Filippo Ganna, and Mathieu van der Poel could be tempted to go together with him.
The prime of the Cipressa is simply 12.4km away from the beginning of the Poggio however the quick descent and principal coastal street are perfect for a high-speed chase if groups have domestiques in a position to chase. The drawback is that if a Cipressa assault is stronger than the chase group.
Colombo, Sciandri, Gontchenkov and Coppolillo managed to open a 30-second hole on the Cipressa and the coast street resulting from a poorly organised chase by the peloton and had been by no means seen once more.
“If UAE trip the Cipressa exhausting then one thing might occur, prefer it did in 1996,” Sciandri advised Cyclingnews.
“However the climate and the wind is the important thing. People watching at house cannot really feel the wind out on the street however it’s a very important think about races. An assault on the Cipressa right into a headwind is pointless as a result of it’s going to even be a headwind on the flat street to the Cipressa. Anyone with a teammate can simply sit on the wheel and catch the attackers.
“If a small group goes clear and the circumstances are proper, then they should all be 100% dedicated, and that’s one other drawback that may flip a Cipressa assault right into a waste of vitality and so an enormous mistake.
Attacking on the Cipressa could be an enormous gamble for Pogačar, he’d go all-in with out figuring out his odds and if the assault would work. It’s dangerous. He cannot expend his staff on the Cipressa like he did in 2024 as a result of he wants them for the Poggio when it is nearly sure that the actually decisive assaults will likely be made.”
Caleb Ewan’s various technique recommendation
Caleb Ewan was maybe by no means thought-about a Milan-San Remo contender and won’t trip this 12 months after his low season transfer to Ineos Grenadiers. However, the Australian sprinter gained the 18-rider dash for second place in 2018 when Vincenzo Nibali attacked alone off the Poggio descent. He was additionally second in 2021 when Jasper Stuyven pulled off an identical transfer.
As a sprinter, Ewan is aware of the artwork of survival higher than most, it helps him keep within the peloton earlier than he makes use of his quick end. Ewan is conscious of Pogačar’s Milan-San Remo’s possibilities but additionally his weaknesses. He suggested him to do a radically totally different tactic and concentrate on one large assault on the Poggio.
“I believe he’ll win it in the future however it will be exhausting for him, simply due to the in-between guys like Van der Poel, who can climb and dash,” Ewan mentioned.
“Everyone is aware of that he will strive one thing, so everybody is prepared for it and conscious. The mistake that Pogačar has made earlier than, I imagine, is that he tried to make it too exhausting on the Cipressa, which actually made the race between there and the Poggio tremendous simple. More guys had been dropped, so the leaders had fewer teammates and so the run-in to the Poggio was simpler and the blokes he was then attempting to drop had been all more energizing.
“I believe his finest wager is to go tremendous simple over the Cipressa, hold as many teammates as attainable after which do a high-speed leadout to the Poggio after which go from the underside, then assault them once more close to the highest if wanted.”
The great thing about Milan-San Remo is that it may be determined in so some ways. A whole lot of riders begin pondering they’ve an opportunity of victory and in concept, they will.
The assaults on the Poggio can resolve all the things or will be swept up on the twisting descent. A rider sometimes can surge away on the flat street into San Remo however extra usually they’re caught. Milan-San Remo can finish in a dash however then the quickest finisher can fade after 300km of quick racing or observe the improper wheel and be boxed in alongside the Via Roma limitations.
Pogačar might get all the things tactically proper through the almost seven hours of racing, however then he might nonetheless lose the dash.
Sciandri rode and completed Milan-San Remo 12 occasions throughout his profession. He was third in 1993, fourth in 1997 after which crashed over the end line in 1997 after a contact of wheels as Erik Zabel gained the dash.
“Pogačar might win even this 12 months, however he might additionally lose time and time once more like me. That’s the magic of Milan-San Remo” Sciandri concluded.