There are lower than 5 weeks to go to the beginning of the 2024 Tour de France and the ultimate countdown to the most important bike race on the planet is now underway. Time, then, to run the shape information over who will likely be vying for the yellow jersey within the first-ever Tour in its 121-year historical past to complete outdoors Paris.
Tadej Pogačar’s victory within the Giro d’Italia by way of one of the crucial dominating performances within the race’s fashionable historical past provides the Slovenian a key place in any estimation of riders’ respective Grand Tour situation. But the opposite key issue to the present classification is the devastating penalties of the stage 4 mass crash in Itzulia Basque Country, which has formed the 2024 fortunes of Jonas Vingegard (Visma-Lease A Bike), Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-QuickStep) and Primož Roglič (Bora-Hansgrohe).
Absent from racing since then, subsequent week’s Critérium du Dauphiné will give the primary public indication of how Roglič and Evenepoel have recovered from the crash. But the one obtrusive absence from these rankings is double Tour de France winner and defending champion Jonas Vingegaard.
While off to a thunderous begin with wins at O Gran Camiño and Tirreno-Adriatico, Vingegaard’s subsequent accidents imply that, not like Evenepoel and Roglič, a date is but to be set for his return to racing, not to mention the Tour de France. Should his presence on the beginning line on June 29 be lastly confirmed, it could be an important game-changer.
With that in thoughts, right here is the second 2024 instalment of our rating of the favourites for Tour victory.
- Team: UAE Team Emirates
- Tour Experience: Winner in 2020 and 2021, runner-up in 2022 and 2023
- 2024 outcomes: 1st at Strade Bianche
Normally if a rider wins the Giro d’Italia and is understood to be attempting to overcome the Tour de France in the identical season, no sooner has he held the Trofeo Senza Fine aloft on the ultimate day than questions start to flow into concerning the big problem ‘doing the double’ represents.
In the case of Tadej Pogačar, that appears unlikely.
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The scale of the UAE Team Emirates racer’s domination has been such that his potential to take a second Grand Tour victory in a single season appears unimaginable to doubt. Up till now, the Slovenian has proven unimaginable consistency in his three-week stage racing monitor report, with podiums in all six during which he has participated.
But the information from the Giro – the most important successful margin in practically half a century, the main of the race from (virtually) starting to finish, the six stage wins with the barest minimal of resistance -can solely counsel that Pogačar has stepped up one other degree in his Grand Tour racing performances, too.
One of the various useful side-effects for Pogačar of successful the Giro is that had he gone into the 2024 Tour de France with out his first Grand Tour victory in three years this May, there would have been much more uncertainty about his possibilities. As issues stand, assuming he manages the interval of restoration between the Giro and the Tour in addition to he and his workforce have dealt with combating for the maglia rosa, he’s the excellent favorite for July.
The presence or absence of Vingegaard, although, can have a serious impact on whether or not he continues to take pleasure in his colossal edge on the remainder of the sector. If the Dane will get again into rivalry, even with all of the query marks over his situation, the actual fact stays that Pogačar misplaced the Tour twice to the Visma-Lease A Bike chief. And his beautiful superiority within the Alps this May might but crumble within the race of Vingegaard’s mountain skills. Watch this house.
- Team: Bora-Hansgrohe
- Tour Experience: Runner-up in 2020, fourth in 2018, three stage wins
- 2024 outcomes: Paris-Nice, tenth general; Itzulia-Basque Country, stage win.
As Visma-Lease A Bike workforce supervisor Richard Plugge was eager to level out throughout his Giro d’Italia go to, it’s laborious to get a full tackle Tadej Pogačar’s candidature to win this 12 months’s Tour de France with none of the highest rivals current in Italy. But given the continuing doable absence of Vingegaard, Primož Roglič might nicely be the primary contender to offer Pogačar a run for his cash.
When the primary instalment of this manner information appeared in March, Roglič appeared on account of pedigree fairly than efficiency. As the countdown to June continues, regardless of Roglič’s victory within the opening TT of the Itzulia Basque Country, his subsequent damage and lengthy spell away from racing make it laborious to get an concept of his present situation.
At the identical time, Roglič not often, if ever, races when he is not in high form and his monitor report in every kind of stage racing, not simply Grand Tours, is without doubt one of the most spectacular of any GC contender. If tenth in Paris-Nice was not the end result anyone had anticipated of the Slovenian veteran, his adaptation course of to a brand new squad might nicely have had an affect and his victory within the opening day of Itzulia Basque Country, adopted by his management, steered, too, he was again on monitor.
Like Evenepoel, the implications of his crash and abandon on stage 4 undoubtedly threw a spanner within the works. But the reviews from his workforce since then have all been upbeat, and the Critérium du Dauphiné will function the perfect checkpoint for the Tour.
It should even be remembered that whatever the Itzulia Basque Country, Primož Roglič’s build-up to the Tour de France was at all times meant to be a lot much less high-pressure and high-profile than in earlier years. The concept of concentrating all the pieces on the Tour, fairly than anticipating him to race extra intensively within the spring, stays the identical, whatever the occasions of April. And it is solely in July that we’ll know for certain how this new technique has performed out.
- Team: Soudal-QuickStep
- Tour Experience: Debutant
- 2024 outcomes: 1st at Figueira Champions Classics, 1st & stage win at Volta ao Algarve, 2nd & stage win at Paris-Nice, Itzulia Basque Country DNF
Remco Evenepoel’s 2024 season couldn’t have gotten off to a greater begin in Portugal, and though tactical errors maybe value him the highest spot in Paris-Nice, all of it boded very nicely for his Tour de France debut. But then what occurred, occurred, within the Itzulia Basque Country and with the implications of a damaged collarbone to navigate by, the query marks out of the blue appeared in far better numbers than each he and Soudal-QuickStep would have favored.
Thankfully, a big a part of these considerations have now evaporated utterly. Like Roglič, since Itzulia Basque Country Evenepoel has skilled at altitude, and he’s now hopefully shifting into high Grand Tour situation. The Critérium du Dauphiné will function as an important take a look at for his present type. Still, as a former Grand Tour winner, and with the time trials enjoying a serious position on this 12 months’s Tour de France, no person can say he’s missing in sources or profession outcomes to be a key participant come July.
The primary doubt circulates round his lack of Tour de France expertise, significantly when in comparison with different high names like Roglič and Pogačar. For all he is ridden two Vueltas and two Giros, and he absolutely understands the pressures of being a pacesetter in each, the Tour’s calls for are much more excessive throughout the board, and the training curve is in a category of its personal too.
The enduring elephant within the room, too, is Evenepoel’s GC catastrophe final 12 months through the Vuelta’s first stage within the Pyrenees. The Belgian was actually in a position to bounce again with a vengeance that did credit score to his resilience and dedication in Spain final September, however as soon as once more, the Dauphine will hopefully provide additional affirmation of that in virtually equally daunting terrain.
- Team: Ineos Grenadiers
- Tour Experience: 2023 fifth general and stage win
- 2024 outcomes: Clásica Jáen, nineteenth, O Gran Camiño thirty first, Paris-Nice twenty eighth, Itzulia Basque Country 2nd general and stage, Tour de Romandie, first general
Ineos Grenadiers’ GC chief for the Tour de France, after a sluggish begin to the 12 months, Carlos Rodríguez has stepped up with a vengeance since early April. Second general and a surprising stage win alongside fellow Spaniard Juan Ayuso in Itzulia Basque Country was adopted up a number of weeks later with outright victory within the Tour de Romandie.
After his craftily claimed Alpine stage win in Morzine final summer season, fifth general in his Tour debut besides, and with boosted standing as GC chief in Ineos Grenadiers for this summer season, might this be a breakthrough Tour for the younger Andalusian racer?
Rodríguez overcame a foul late fall within the Vosges within the Tour de France final July to come back second in the most effective younger rider’s classification and with winner Tadej Pogačar not qualifying for that rating, the white jersey will virtually actually be a goal for the 23-year. Could this be the 12 months, too, that Spain lastly will get its first podium finisher on the Tour since Alejandro Valverde in 2015, or will Rodríguez purpose even larger?
There might be little question, both, that Rodríguez can depend on some sterling assist in Ineos Grenadiers, with two former Tour de France winners, Egan Bernal and Geraint Thomas, available for backup and recommendation, in addition to a squad with an impressive historical past of success within the Grand Boucle. As for thus many different high contenders in 2024, for Rodríguez the Criterium du Dauphine will likely be one other main reference level for July.
- Team: UAE Team Emirates
- Tour Experience: 2023 third general and stage win, 2022 ninth general, 2016 fourth general
- 2024 outcomes: Tour of Oman first general, UAE Tour DNF, Giro d’Abruzzo, fourth general; Tour of Romandie thirteenth general
Yates’ podium end ultimately 12 months’s Tour demonstrated that he’s greater than merely a luxurious domestique, however a possible auxiliary chief ought to mishap befall Pogačar.
The Briton loved a stellar 12 months in his first season at UAE Team Emirates, successful the UAE Tour, Tour de Romandie and the Grand Prix de Montréal, and he began his 2024 marketing campaign on a equally buoyant notice by conquering Green Mountain to take general victory on the Tour of Oman.
The concussion sustained in a crash on the UAE Tour, nonetheless, set again Yates’ progress, and after being stored out of Tirreno-Adriatico, the subsequent step for the Briton was to return to racing within the brand-new Italian race, the Giro d’Abruzzo, the place he claimed fourth.
The Tour of Romandie was spent partly in assist of Juan Ayuso (UAE Team Emirates) and since then Yates has been constructing steadily in coaching. Strikingly, nonetheless, he’ll miss out on the Critérium du Dauphiné, the place in Pogačar’s absence he led UAE final 12 months to second general.
Yates’ colossal expertise within the Tour de France, relationship again to when he positioned fourth in 2016 and took the most effective younger rider’s classification, already made him a stable wager for sturdy performances every July, however his third place and stage win final 12 months gave an enormous enhance to his credibility as a contender. How he’ll fare this summer season with so little current racing is tough to foretell, however a top-five end is unquestionably removed from out of the query.
- Team: UAE Team Emirates
- Tour Experience: Debutant
- 2024 outcomes: 2nd at Ruta del Sol, 1st at Faun Ardéche Classic, 2nd at Faun Drôme Classic, third at Trofeo Laigueglia, 2nd general & stage win at Tirreno-Adriatico
Such is UAE Team Emirates’ power in depth that the squad has one other podium candidate amongst their quantity in Juan Ayuso, one other super-domestique to Tadej Pogačar because the Slovenian seeks to finish the primary Giro-Tour double since 1998.
UAE Team Emirates even have Adam Yates and João Almeida of their 2024 Tour de France lengthy record, however Ayuso arguably presents extra potential. He remains to be solely 21 however was third within the 2022 Vuelta a Espana and fourth final 12 months after a disrupted season.
So far in 2024, he is stood on the rostrum 10 occasions, with second general at Tirreno-Adriatico behind Jonas Vingegaard and the primary professional stage race win of his profession at Itzulia Basque Country amongst his highlights.
His most up-to-date outing noticed him place fifth on the Tour de Romandie, whereas he’ll tackle one final tune-up on the Critérium du Dauphiné earlier than heading to the Tour.
For the person who completed fourth general on his Grand Tour debut on the Vuelta final 12 months, selecting up the most effective younger rider prize within the course of, a journey onto the ultimate podium or high 5 might nicely have been a chance if he was the workforce chief.
As it’s, although, he’ll be on the service of Pogačar this July and so lies in a tier just under the highest favourites.
- Team: Movistar
- Tour expertise: Five appearances. fifth general in 2020
- 2024 outcomes: fifth at Volta a Catalunya, sixth at Tour de Romandie
Alongside Carlos Rodríguez and Juan Ayuso, it is Enric Mas who represents the third rider from Spain heading the nation’s GC cost on the Tour de France this 12 months.
The Mallorcan is older than his compatriots and, with a pair of high 10s below his belt amongst 5 earlier begins on the Tour, there is a sense that he is the completed product and a repeat of his earlier fifth and sixth placings are roughly on the restrict of potentialities for the Movistar man.
The stable if unspectacular Mas has been precisely that thus far in 2024, having taken on simply three races thus far. Highlights of his spring marketing campaign have included fifth on the Volta a Catalunya and sixth on the Tour de Romandie, each with a few fourth locations on mountain phases alongside the best way.
Mas’ closing preparation will come on the Tour de Suisse as he as soon as once more takes purpose on the high 5 in France. With his monitor report of seven top-10 rankings amongst 9 Grand Tour finishes – together with three runner-up spots on the Vuelta – it is a good wager we’ll see him up there as soon as once more.
- Team: EF Education-EasyPost
- Tour expertise: Three appearances. 4th general in 2021
- 2024 outcomes: 2nd & stage win at Tour Colombia, seventh & stage win at Tour de Romandie
Racing in new colors within the pink of EF this season following a three-year stint at Ineos, Carapaz will head up a revamped GC cost for the US squad in France this summer season.
In the Ecuadorian, the workforce has signed up a confirmed top-level winner, a rider with glory on the Giro d’Italia, Tour de Suisse, and Olympic Games on his palmarès. A repeat of his third place on the 2021 Tour de France is precisely what they’re going to be hoping for this time round.
Carapaz began out the 12 months scorching with a nationwide time trial title win, second within the highway race, and a summit end stage win on the Tour Colombia on the best way to second general.
Since heading to Europe, he is been quieter, with eleventh at O Gran Camiño and thirteenth at La Flèche Wallonne highlights of his spring earlier than he took on the Tour de Romandie.
There, he recorded his first win on European soil for his new workforce, outduelling Florian Lipowitz on the summit end in Leysin as he raced to seventh general.
He and his workforce will likely be hoping for extra of the identical as they head again to Switzerland for late Tour prep on the Tour de Suisse. Meanwhile, he has met with disappointment in Ecuador’s Olympic choice the place Jhonatan Narváez will likely be taking his slot.
The chasing pack
Leading our record of honourable mentions is, after all, two-time reigning champion Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease A Bike). The Dane spent 12 days in hospital following his horror crash at Itzulia Basque Country and continues to face an uphill battle to achieve 100% health in time for the Tour de France.
He’s been using open air since mid-April and not too long ago headed to Mallorca for some warm-weather coaching. We haven’t any body of reference for his type, clearly, but when he reaches full health by July then after all he’ll be among the many favourites as soon as once more.
Egan Bernal (Ineos Grenadiers) has been one of many success tales of the season thus far. Two years on from a coaching crash which could have value him his profession and much more, the Colombian has proven indicators of getting again in direction of his greatest type by the spring, selecting up podiums on the Volta a Catalunya and O Gran Camiño, a high 5 on the Tour Colombia, and high 10s at Paris-Nice and Tour de Romandie. He will not be the de facto chief at Ineos this summer season, however he’ll be one to look at.
Jai Hindley (Bora-Hansgrohe) is a Grand Tour winner in his personal proper, having gained the Giro d’Italia two years in the past, however most count on him to behave as a super-domestique to Roglič this July. The Australian loved a powerful begin to 2024 with fifth on the Volta a Valenciana and third at Tirreno-Adriatico. He’s been quieter on current outings, although, ending twelfth at Itzulia Basque Country, 52nd at Liège-Bastogne-Liège, and twenty eighth on the Tour de Romandie – outcomes that do not leap off the web page forward of the Tour.
A crash on the AlUla Tour and a subsequent concussion in February put paid to Simon Yates‘ (Jayco-AlUla) plans for the spring, with a bit of his time since then spent getting again to racing health. His greatest end result since then has been eleventh place on the Tour de Romandie, an indication he is on an upward trajectory heading into the summer season.
With Thibaut Pinot now retired, David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) represents the house nation’s greatest probability of a high end result on the Tour. He has but to impress at WorldTour degree thus far in 2024, although, with a 14th place on the Tour de Romandie essentially the most he has to point out for his efforts on the high degree. A win on the Tour du Jura and podium on the Classic Grand Besançon Doubs are his different high outcomes, although proper now he is not trying en path to a high lead to July.
Vuelta a España champion Sepp Kuss might but lead Visma-Lease A Bike on the Tour, relying on Jonas Vingegaard’s restoration. Throughout the spring, he hasn’t but reached the heights of type which have seen him win Tour and Vuelta phases in addition to the Grand Tour itself final autumn. A thirteenth place on the Volta a Catalunya and forty first with the mountains prize at Itzulia Basque Country counsel that type of type remains to be a way off.