Four seconds, ten seconds, 12 seconds – even 15 seconds would not sound like a lot in relation to WorldTour stage racing. But the Tour Down Under basic classification margins are as far aside as they’re shut forward of the penultimate stage to Willunga.
Javier Romo (Movistar) is an untested GC chief, having solely secured his first WorldTour win on the finish of a punchy stage 3 to Uraidla.
Romo’s earlier eight-second lead over final 12 months’s Tour Down Under runner-up Jhonatan Narvaez (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) was halved when the Ecuadorian sprinted to 3rd on Friday and earned a four-second time bonus.
Friday’s stage in Victor Harbor confirmed Narvaez’s 2024 efficiency right here, when he powered to 3rd on Willunga behind Oscar Onley (Picnic-PostNl) and eventual winner Stevie Williams (Israel-Premier Tech), then adopted that up with second the next day on Mount Lofty. It’s clear that Narvaez can dash as quick as he can climb, making him the largest menace to Romo’s lead.
With no excessive winds and comparatively cheap temperatures anticipated on Saturday, the stage will doubtless be tightly managed by the WorldTour groups on the prime of the rankings. That would imply the race can be determined in a single huge push up one in all Australia’s most well-known climbs, on the finish of the 145.7km stage 5.
Movistar had no hassle holding stage 4’s breakaway in verify for Romo, and UAE Team Emirates-XRG, Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe, Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale, Ineos Grenadiers and Lidl-Trek have been attentive in defending their GC positions for Narvaez (second at 4 seconds), Finn Fisher-Black (fourth at 10 seconds) Bastien Tronchon (fifth at 12 seconds), Magnus Sheffield (sixth at 15 seconds) and Albert Philipsen (seventh at 15 seconds), respectively.
But there are extra riders chasing Romo, Narvaez et al. There are a dozen riders within the group at 15 seconds, and 11 extra inside one minute together with defending champion Stevie Williams (Israel-Premier Tech) and pre-race favorite Luke Plapp (Jayco-AlUla).
Other names up there embrace Onley in thirteenth, the underrated Thomas Gloag (Visma-Lease a Bike) in fifteenth, XDS Astana’s Sergio Higuita, and darkish horse Afonso Eulálio (Bahrain Victorious).
How the race could be received
The time gaps are so tight that Narvaez solely wants both to grab a couple of intermediate dash bonuses (unlikely given Movistar’s energy) or take finish-line bonuses atop Willunga Hill to tie on time with Romo. Given Narvaez’s superior ending positions on phases 1-4, on a hypothetical tiebreaker, the UAE rider would win general.
However, there’s nonetheless hazard lurking behind the highest two. Lidl-Trek have Patrick Konrad in third at 10 seconds and three different riders within the prime 16 general, giving the group loads of playing cards to play. Most notable is the gifted younger Dane Philipsen, at the moment main the most effective younger rider classification and seventh general at 15 seconds. The group have two different riders, Andrea Bagioli and Bauke Mollema additionally at 15 seconds. so that they have the numbers to play a tactical sport.
Sports director Kim Andersen confirmed to Cyclingnews that the group would race to guard Philipsen on Saturday. “We have seen in coaching that Philipsen is the strongest [of the team],” he stated. “He will battle the entire manner.”
Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe are subsequent in step with Fisher-Black in fourth at 10 seconds, tied on time with Konrad. He at the moment is behind Konrad within the count-back, so might want to acquire time to land on the rostrum.
UAE sports activities director Fabio Baldato defined earlier than stage 4 it might be unlikely riders go for time bonuses as a result of rival groups may management them. In the tip, Mauro Schmid (Jayco-AlUla) and William Lecerf (Soudal-Quickstep) gained bonuses to maneuver up a couple of spots to 18th and twenty first.
The contenders must face up to the assaults on Wickham Hill after 21.5km of racing after which may have over 100km earlier than the primary ascent of Willunga Hill. In the ladies’s stage final week, the climb break up the peloton however the contenders saved their bullets for the ultimate journey up.
It’s prone to be the identical within the males’s peloton for a number of causes: the extent of the riders is tremendous excessive – the largest issue that has modified since earlier than the pandemic – the stage is comparatively quick, and the circumstances aren’t onerous sufficient to punish them.
With seconds to play for on the prime of Willunga, a contender not named Narvaez or Romo must actually ship it to get to the highest step.
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